Being a smarter sports bettor, or any kind of gambler really, doesn’t take much. Sure it can take a lifetime, and a lot of luck, to master. However, even a limited amount of strategy and self awareness can improve your chances – your edge – against the house. No strategy is a guaranteed path to success in gambling, but it’s almost always better to have one in mind than not.
Decide What Kind of Bettor You Are – Sports Knowledge or Math-Based
All good sports bettors look for an edge. If you’re just looking to put all your monthly betting budget on your favorite NBA team to win, or split it into a dozen speculative parlays – go ahead. You never know, you might (probably won’t) win big.
The smart money though, is on thinking about your edge before you even place a bet. There are two main camps. Sports knowledge bettors know all the team rosters by heart. They follow quiet insiders on social media that few know about. They’re always looking at rumors and team news. This knowledge can, theoretically, allow them to beat the market.
Math-based bettors use hard data. Often times a bet is just as much about a misprice from sportsbooks, or an over tuned bonus offer, as it is what sports team is playing. When they do look at match ups, they use algorithmic data analysis and pattern detection to find value bets.
Choosing a Betting Site is a Long-Term Decision
Sharp bettors tend to have accounts at many sportsbooks, but prefer one or two options. Most bettors should start small and at one site. There are plenty of factors to choosing a site, so overloading yourself before you begin is not advised.
For example, a list of sportsbooks licensed to operate in Alberta is a good resource for players in that Canadian province. Licensing information is often key. However, bonus offers, promos and rewards and exact details of sports markets offered, are all useful to bettors to look at side-by-side. Comparison sites can offer that kind of list, tailored to the jurisdiction players are in – whether that’s Canada or elsewhere.
Make Use of Bonuses – But Don’t Be Overly Swayed by Big Numbers
Smart bettors don’t emotionally jump at the biggest numbered free bet offer. There’s a lot more that goes into a value offer than a headline number. Of course, bigger is sometimes better.
But a $10 free bet with no strings attached will always be better than a $100 free bet with a big wagering requirement, a limited max win and time limits. For example. Smart bettors look at the terms conditions of any offer and do the math to assess value. Or at the least find an online resource that has summarized them.
Consider Your Bankroll and Bet Sizing
This one is quite simple to start, although you can go deep with it. Basically, don’t bet more than 5% of your bankroll in one bet. You should aim for around 1% to 2% of your bankroll per bet. If this is very small, less than $1? Consider keeping it at $1, as any profits on value bets that aren’t parlays will be almost insignificant.
Always bet what you can afford, and treat it as entertainment money. But you can still be smart with entertainment funds. Bankroll management will increase your chances of winning long term, but also lets you get more out of your deposit.
Avoid Chasing Losses and Tilt
All bettors, even the small percentage who make fortunes from it, have bad days at the office. Avoid the temptation to place bets when you’re distracted or overly tired. If you do have an unlucky run out of results – just stop for the day. Never up your next bet to chase your losses. This is a gambler’s classic, for a reason.
Bad luck can cause tilt. Tilt will have you depleting your bankroll quicker than you ever thought you could. Watch out for it.
Evaluating Good Bets Through Math and Value
Now this, is a far too complex topic to assess in a couple of paragraphs. Here are just some factors math-based sports bettors assess (often using machine learning or data analysis software):
- Implied probabilities
- Line movement analysis
- Player efficiency ratings
- Regression analysis
- Expected Value calculations
- Sports or league trend analysis
There are syndicates and individuals out there who have made hundreds of millions, even billions, doing this kind of betting. It’s hard. Very hard. Basically impossible. But with a good mind for numbers, self control and dedication – and a healthy scepticism of social media betting gurus – you never know.
Using Sports Knowledge and Data Analytics
On the other hand, bettors who decide wagers based on sports knowledge… have an equally complicated framework for deciding bets. Including but not limited to:
- Metrics that indicate form over actual points performance
- Stylistic and tactical matchups
- Knowledge of league schedules, fixture congestion and what can motivate players
For example a sharp bettor might notice when a team is overhyped. Although sportsbooks set odds, they are influenced to change them by market money – because they need to balance it to ensure they profit. So if a bettor with good sports knowledge can identify where public money is significantly off from the more likely outcome, that’s where the value lies.
